Canada 2019: North


MP at Dissolution: Larry Bagnell

Our Rating: Solidly Liberal

Our Take: After voting in NDP Leader Audrey McLaughlin in 1993, Louise Hardy held this for the NDP until the current MP Larry Bagnell gained it. Since then, he has only lost in the 2011 Election, where he faced Conservative MP Ryan Leef, whom he defeated in 2015, and two very strong third-party candidates who have since been elected to the Yukon Legislature. The riding covers the whole territory, although most of its population lives in Whitehorse. The indigenous population is lower than in the other two territories, at around 24%. 

It is often said that the three territorial ridings tend to vote largely in line with the rest of the country, but to get our rating we need to apply that to the partisan makeup of the riding. Of these three ridings, this is the strongest for the Liberals, and we believe that Larry Bagnell, a well-liked incumbent, who is unquestionably a ‘Yukon man,’ should hold this. Although this riding can go for another party, the likeliest this time being the Conservative Jonas Smith (a former President of the Yukon Party and community activist), there is very little indication of a competitive race here this time, despite the strength of Smith – it’s still a riding with a popular Liberal incumbent in a year the Liberals could win government. Therefore we’re inclined to give a rating of Solidly Liberal.